For Thursday, February 28

"A jumper cable walks into a bar.  The bartender says, “I’ll serve you, but don’t start anything.”

* * *  Anonymous

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

 

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

 

The main model is now long the March SP at 2710.50 as of 2/12/19 on a VP buy signal...    

 

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2794.00

 

MAJOR - -   2766.32 and must close below that price

on

Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

 

minor - - 2743.01

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now short the April gold  at 1343.80 as of 2/20/19 on a VP sell signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

 

minor - - 1333.52

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1322.00

 

minor - - 1300.93

 

MAJOR - -  1282.32 and must close above that price on Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   2 trades                                   35.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1141.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-17.18 points booked on closed positions, that's down .394% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

BUT MORE THAN 310 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  none...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  none...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  Precious Metals (NUGT)

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2727.00 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 252.57 241.59 0.00 259.87
UDOW   * long 89.37 80.35 0.00 97.69
SPY long 272.24 260.75 0.00 279.2
SPXL   * long 41.68 37.58 0.00 44.87
UPRO  * long 44.07 39.62 0.00 47.41
QQQ long 167.88 161.77 0.00 173.59
TQQQ   * long 47.79 43.59 0.00 51.36
TNA   * long 60.22 51.97 0.00 66.78
SOXL long 118.96 99.34 -11.79 126.42
IWM long 151.78 144.09 0.00 157.32
MDY long 341.07 321.03 0.00 349.64
IYT long 186.46 173.86 0.00 189.12
VXX flat no data 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
April Gold long 1311.90 1332.10 1282.80 1332.10
GLD  * long 123.09 122.56 4.47 124.69
UGL long 38.13 38.34 2.23 39.09
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.75
GLL flat 71.53 67.14 0.00 69.29
ZSL flat 37.37 35.02 0.00 36.3
PPLT  * long 77.26 78.94 -2.84 82.16
GDX  * long 22.08 21.51 0.44 22.35
GDXJ  * long 31.59 31.68 1.30 32.75
NUGT  * flat 24.07 22.52 -0.09 20.11
JNUG  * long 10.15 10.51 0.44 11.2
DUST  * flat 21.55 20.16 -1.60 18.71
JDST  * flat 47.54 44.59 0.00 37.22
TOTAL 4.99
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * flat 122.64 120.08 2.99 120.43
TMF flat 19.94 18.64 1.47 18.79
TBT  * flat 35.99 35.17 -0.83 35.7
TMV flat 18.93 17.69 0.00 18.66
VCLT flat 89.07 87.19 1.29 87.82
TOTAL 4.92
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 55.24 53.63 0.00 56.68
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 57.23 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 57.90 59.97 5.36 62.98
JPM  * long 103.13 105.34 -0.23 105.16
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE long 63.96 65.37 -2.74 65.91
OILU * flat 24.84 23.24 -4.19 23.64
GUSH flat 12.47 11.62 -0.83 10.84
SCO flat 22.90 21.43 12.00 18.69
TOTAL 4.24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * long 111.64 114.02 -4.73 112.78
WMT * long 97.36 99.45 -4.10 98.11
MCD * flat 187.90 184.04 -0.38 183.36
TGT * long 71.64 73.20 -4.19 73.03
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 42.30 41.65 0.00 43.76
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * flat 272.59 267.03 1.88 250.13
CURE long 52.05 53.47 -3.47 55.98
XLV long 89.48 90.23 -1.89 91.92
JNJ  * long 131.16 131.28 -2.71 135.87
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.72 24.91 0.00 24.85
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.75
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 85.94
YCS  * long 74.26 74.55 0.00 76.4
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 42.37 41.20 0.00 43.93
EURL  * long 23.53 22.43 0.00 26.05
EEM  * long 41.64 40.88 0.00 43
EZU  * long 37.12 37.98 0.13 38.31
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 168.32 159.46 -2.80 174.87
IBM long 133.81 121.96 0.00 139.18
MSFT  * long 105.74 108.00 -2.23 112.17
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.23 16.79 0.00 16.61
DBC long 15.37 15.54 0.00 16.01
CF flat 45.53 44.52 -1.98 43.34
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 18.13
    TOTAL -1.98
YTD -17.18
%YTD -0.394%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

Continue reading

For Friday, February 22

"Stay in the center and you will be able to move in any direction."

* * *  Zen Proverb

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

 

The main model is now long the March SP at 2710.50 as of 2/12/19 on a VP buy signal...    

 

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2774.50

 

MAJOR - -   2766.32 and must close below that price

on

Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

 

minor - - 2743.01

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2617.87

 

minor - - 2587.55

 

MAJOR - -   2534.34 and must close above that price

on

Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -   2494.38 and must close above that price

on

Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now short the April gold  at 1343.80 as of 2/20/19 on a VP sell signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1325.40

 

 

minor - - 1333.52

 

minor - - 1309.97

 

minor - - 1281.45

 

MAJOR - -  1261.85 and must close above that price on Friday, March 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   2 trades                                   35.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1141.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-14.31 points booked on closed positions, that's down .328% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

REALIZE, MORE THAN 250 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  Commodities and Agriculture (CF)...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  none...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  Interest Rates (VCLT, TLT, TMF)

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2678.75 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 251.27 241.59 0.00 258.53
UDOW   * long 85.65 80.35 0.00 96.12
SPY long 267.73 260.75 0.00 277.42
SPXL   * long 39.65 37.58 0.00 44.07
UPRO  * long 41.92 39.62 0.00 46.56
QQQ long 166.47 161.77 0.00 171.62
TQQQ   * long 45.50 43.59 0.00 49.72
TNA   * long 56.19 51.97 0.00 66.16
SOXL long 107.67 99.34 -11.79 126.66
IWM long 148.29 144.09 0.00 156.79
MDY long 334.44 321.03 0.00 349.61
IYT long 180.75 173.86 0.00 191.41
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
April Gold long 1280.50 1332.10 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 123.09 122.56 4.47 125.05
UGL long 38.13 38.34 2.23 39.37
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.83
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 68.89
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 35.77
PPLT  * long 77.26 78.94 -2.84 77.99
GDX  * long 21.81 21.51 0.44 22.98
GDXJ  * long 31.46 31.68 1.30 33.72
NUGT  * long 20.05 21.44 1.30 21.92
JNUG  * long 10.08 10.51 0.44 12.24
DUST  * flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 17.19
JDST  * flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 34.23
TOTAL 6.38
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * flat 122.64 120.08 2.99 120.85
TMF flat 19.94 18.64 1.47 19.02
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 35.45
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 18.47
VCLT flat 89.07 87.19 1.29 87.86
TOTAL 4.92
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 54.37 53.63 0.00 56.7
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 56.45 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 56.27 59.97 5.36 62.19
JPM  * long 103.13 105.34 -0.23 105.47
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE long 63.96 65.37 -2.74 65.57
OILU * long 21.48 22.96 -2.71 23.75
GUSH flat 12.47 11.62 -0.83 11.07
SCO flat 22.90 21.43 12.00 18.8
TOTAL 5.72
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * long 111.64 114.02 -4.73 114.29
WMT * long 97.36 99.45 -4.10 99.39
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 182.81
TGT * long 71.64 73.20 -4.19 72.03
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 42.25 41.65 0.00 43.62
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * flat 272.54 266.99 1.88 266.4
CURE long 51.48 53.47 -3.47 55.66
XLV long 89.19 90.23 -1.89 91.71
JNJ  * long 131.16 131.28 -2.71 135.42
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.57 24.91 0.00 24.98
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.67
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 86.19
YCS  * long 74.26 74.55 0.00 75.9
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 41.86 41.20 0.00 43.4
EURL  * long 22.77 22.43 0.00 25.38
EEM  * long 41.64 40.88 0.00 42.57
EZU  * long 37.12 37.98 0.13 38.01
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 167.18 159.46 -2.80 171.06
IBM long 132.09 121.96 0.00 137.84
MSFT  * long 105.74 108.00 -2.23 109.41
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.29 16.84 0.00 16.73
DBC long 15.21 15.54 0.00 16.05
CF long 44.25 45.25 -1.98 43.99
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 18.19
    TOTAL -1.98
YTD -14.31
%YTD -0.328%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…


Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 
13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

 

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

 

Light Positions:

 

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...  also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips...  to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

 

Trailing Stops:

 

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious...  the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction...  for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

 

Trading Strategy:

 

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry...  this will eliminate all whips...

 

HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

The entire listing as presented is a widely diversified portfolio of varied market interests, and we know that wide diversification is the key to reducing market risk in any portfolio...  therefore, the key to legitimate long term profit with this portfolio is to have positions widely and even distributed among as many of the different market groups as possible...  in other words, do not focus on only one market or favor one market over another, do not attempt to pick winners and losers with a heavy position in one market and a light position in another, one should invest the same dollar amount into each position...

 

Commit between 2% and 2.5% of your entire account to any one position and no more or less than that, this way your dollar risk will be evenly distributed among all markets...

 

Participate in as many markets as possible, treat them all the same, this will further reduce your risk and increase your likelihood for profit...

 

Upon entry of any new position, the initial exit stop is a 2% risk for that position, plus or minus a few ticks, 3X markets should use a 4% initial risk exit stop...  if you get stopped out, then that's the end of that trade, do not attempt to chase that market, just wait for the next signal opportunity, it will come soon enough...  if you are not stopped out, then the trailing exit stop will rise as the market also rises...  this will allow you maximum gains for any active position for as long as that market rallies...

 

About 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 new positions are stopped out at the initial exit stop, the other positions quickly recoup that 2% loss and generates further gains...

 

The optimized model allows the position to remain ongoing for as long as possible until weakness begin to show itself...

 

Several of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments are listed in the optimized portfolio upon request, but be very cautious if you trade any of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments, the price decays rapidly and is not a true investment market, it's only a near term hedge instrument...

 

 

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

 

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the mini contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  we have discontinued using the large contract since the volume for the large contract has diminished significantly and therefore may give false signals...

 

The Confirmation Price

 

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

 

 

The VP Price

 

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

 

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

 

The Floor/Ceiling Price

 

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

 

How To Read The VP Price

 

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

 

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

 

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...

 

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

 

 

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

 

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

 

 

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH

 

The momentum line very closely correlates with the market price...

 

THE CYCLE (CF) FINDER FOR THE SP:

 

The Cycle Finder captures the day to day zigzag movement of the market within each broader up and down cycle which is shown with the LT momentum graph...  the ideal time to buy is when the LT momentum line has bottomed and/or is still moving higher and the Cycle Finder has also bottomed...  a lower risk selling or shorting opportunity occurs when the Cycle Finder and the momentum line are both moving downward...  I find this particular indicator to be highly valuable in taking low risk market positions...

 

 

THE VERTICAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM SPREAD (EQ) IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST...

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

 

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2019.

 

This message and any attachment(s) to it are intended for the personal use of the person to whom it is addressed, only.  The message and its attachment(s) may contain privileged, confidential, proprietary, and otherwise sensitive information.  If you have received this message in error and are not an intended addressee, you are advised that any further dissemination, copying, publication or distribution is prohibited.

For Thursday, February 21

"Stay in the center and you will be able to move in any direction."

* * *  Zen Proverb

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

 

The main model is now long the March SP at 2710.50 as of 2/12/19 on a VP buy signal...    

 

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2785.50

 

MAJOR - -   2766.32 and must close below that price

on

Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

 

minor - - 2743.01

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2617.87

 

minor - - 2587.55

 

MAJOR - -   2534.34 and must close above that price

on

Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -   2494.38 and must close above that price

on

Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now short the April gold  at 1343.80 as of 2/20/19 on a VP sell signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1341.90

 

 

minor - - 1333.52

 

minor - - 1309.97

 

minor - - 1281.45

 

MAJOR - -  1261.85 and must close above that price on Friday, March 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   2 trades                                   35.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1141.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-13.42 points booked on closed positions, that's down .308% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

REALIZE, MORE THAN 250 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  Precious Metals (PPLT), Consumer Discretionary (DIS)...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  none...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  none

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2678.75 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 251.27 241.59 0.00 259.5
UDOW   * long 85.65 80.35 0.00 97.37
SPY long 267.73 260.75 0.00 278.41
SPXL   * long 39.65 37.58 0.00 44.56
UPRO  * long 41.92 39.62 0.00 47.08
QQQ long 166.47 161.77 0.00 172.25
TQQQ   * long 45.50 43.59 0.00 50.29
TNA   * long 56.19 51.97 0.00 66.93
SOXL long 107.67 99.34 -11.79 129.45
IWM long 148.29 144.09 0.00 157.39
MDY long 334.44 321.03 0.00 350.79
IYT long 180.75 173.86 0.00 191.46
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
April Gold long 1280.50 1332.10 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 123.09 122.56 4.47 126.48
UGL long 38.13 38.34 2.23 40.32
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 15.08
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 67.44
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 34.61
PPLT  * long 77.26 78.94 -2.84 78.46
GDX  * long 21.81 21.51 0.44 23.36
GDXJ  * long 31.46 31.68 1.30 34.41
NUGT  * long 20.05 21.44 1.30 23.01
JNUG  * long 10.08 10.51 0.44 13.02
DUST  * flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 16.42
JDST  * flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 32.41
TOTAL 6.38
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * long 120.63 122.28 4.46 121.94
TMF long 18.91 19.68 2.18 19.53
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 34.83
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 17.99
VCLT long 87.79 86.50 0.00 88.32
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 54.37 53.63 0.00 56.29
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 56.45 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 56.27 59.97 5.36 62.92
JPM  * long 103.13 105.34 -0.23 105.69
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE long 63.96 65.37 -2.74 66.6
OILU * long 21.48 22.96 -2.71 23.97
GUSH flat 12.47 11.62 -0.83 12.07
SCO flat 22.90 21.43 12.00 18.65
TOTAL 5.72
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * long 111.64 114.02 -4.73 113.68
WMT * long 97.36 99.45 -4.10 99.88
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 180.49
TGT * long 71.64 73.20 -4.19 72.71
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 42.25 41.65 0.00 43.44
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * flat 272.54 266.99 1.88 269.51
CURE long 51.48 53.47 -3.47 57.19
XLV long 89.19 90.23 -1.89 92.52
JNJ  * long 131.16 131.28 -2.71 136.35
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.57 24.91 0.00 24.95
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.67
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 86.07
YCS  * long 74.26 74.55 0.00 75.74
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 41.86 41.20 0.00 43.5
EURL  * long 22.77 22.43 0.00 25.82
EEM  * long 41.64 40.88 0.00 42.66
EZU  * long 37.12 37.98 0.13 38.15
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 167.18 159.46 -2.80 172.03
IBM long 132.09 121.96 0.00 138
MSFT  * long 105.74 108.00 -2.23 107.15
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.29 16.84 0.00 16.69
DBC long 15.21 15.54 0.00 16
CF flat 45.25 44.25 -1.98 44.58
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 18.11
    TOTAL -1.98
YTD -13.42
%YTD -0.308%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

 

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

 

Light Positions:

 

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...  also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips...  to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

 

Trailing Stops:

 

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious...  the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction...  for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

 

Trading Strategy:

 

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry...  this will eliminate all whips...

 

HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

The entire listing as presented is a widely diversified portfolio of varied market interests, and we know that wide diversification is the key to reducing market risk in any portfolio...  therefore, the key to legitimate long term profit with this portfolio is to have positions widely and even distributed among as many of the different market groups as possible...  in other words, do not focus on only one market or favor one market over another, do not attempt to pick winners and losers with a heavy position in one market and a light position in another, one should invest the same dollar amount into each position...

 

Commit between 2% and 2.5% of your entire account to any one position and no more or less than that, this way your dollar risk will be evenly distributed among all markets...

 

Participate in as many markets as possible, treat them all the same, this will further reduce your risk and increase your likelihood for profit...

 

Upon entry of any new position, the initial exit stop is a 2% risk for that position, plus or minus a few ticks, 3X markets should use a 4% initial risk exit stop...  if you get stopped out, then that's the end of that trade, do not attempt to chase that market, just wait for the next signal opportunity, it will come soon enough...  if you are not stopped out, then the trailing exit stop will rise as the market also rises...  this will allow you maximum gains for any active position for as long as that market rallies...

 

About 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 new positions are stopped out at the initial exit stop, the other positions quickly recoup that 2% loss and generates further gains...

 

The optimized model allows the position to remain ongoing for as long as possible until weakness begin to show itself...

 

Several of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments are listed in the optimized portfolio upon request, but be very cautious if you trade any of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments, the price decays rapidly and is not a true investment market, it's only a near term hedge instrument...

 

 

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

 

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the mini contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  we have discontinued using the large contract since the volume for the large contract has diminished significantly and therefore may give false signals...

 

The Confirmation Price

 

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

 

 

The VP Price

 

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

 

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

 

The Floor/Ceiling Price

 

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

 

How To Read The VP Price

 

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

 

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

 

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...

 

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

 

 

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

 

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

 

 

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH

 

The momentum line very closely correlates with the market price...

 

THE CYCLE (CF) FINDER FOR THE SP:

 

The Cycle Finder captures the day to day zigzag movement of the market within each broader up and down cycle which is shown with the LT momentum graph...  the ideal time to buy is when the LT momentum line has bottomed and/or is still moving higher and the Cycle Finder has also bottomed...  a lower risk selling or shorting opportunity occurs when the Cycle Finder and the momentum line are both moving downward...  I find this particular indicator to be highly valuable in taking low risk market positions...

 

 

THE VERTICAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM SPREAD (EQ) IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST...

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

 

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2019.

This message and any attachment(s) to it are intended for the personal use of the person to whom it is addressed, only.  The message and its attachment(s) may contain privileged, confidential, proprietary, and otherwise sensitive information.  If you have received this message in error and are not an intended addressee, you are advised that any further dissemination, copying, publication or distribution is prohibited.

 

For Friday, February 15

"Educating the mind without educating the heart is no education at all."

* * *  Aristotle

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

 

The main model is now long the March SP at 2710.50 as of 2/12/19 on a VP buy signal...    

 

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

 

MAJOR - -   2766.32 and must close below that price

on

Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2743.50

 

minor - - 2743.01

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2617.87

 

minor - - 2587.55

 

MAJOR - -   2534.34 and must close above that price

on

Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -   2494.38 and must close above that price

on

Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now long the April gold  at 1309.50 as of 2/14/19 on a VP buy signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

 

minor - - 1333.52

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1315.50

 

minor - - 1309.97

 

minor - - 1281.45

 

MAJOR - -  1261.85 and must close above that price on Friday, March 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   2 trades                                   35.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1141.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-12.42 points booked on closed positions, that's down .285% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

REALIZE, JUST SHY OF 200 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  Agriculture and Commodities (CF), Energy (XLE)...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  Health Care...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  Precious Metals (NUGT)

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2678.75 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 251.27 241.59 0.00 255.16
UDOW   * long 85.65 80.35 0.00 91.79
SPY long 267.73 260.75 0.00 274.38
SPXL   * long 39.65 37.58 0.00 42.69
UPRO  * long 41.92 39.62 0.00 45.12
QQQ long 166.47 161.77 0.00 171.22
TQQQ   * long 45.50 43.59 0.00 49.44
TNA   * long 56.19 51.97 0.00 62.54
SOXL long 107.67 99.34 -11.79 124.78
IWM long 148.29 144.09 0.00 153.77
MDY long 334.44 321.03 0.00 344.61
IYT long 180.75 173.86 0.00 189.69
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
April Gold flat 1332.10 1280.50 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 123.09 122.56 4.47 124.06
UGL long 38.13 38.34 2.23 38.74
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.65
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 70.2
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 36.99
PPLT  * flat 78.94 77.26 -2.84 74.64
GDX  * long 21.81 21.51 0.44 22.14
GDXJ  * long 31.46 31.68 1.30 32.33
NUGT  * flat 21.44 20.05 1.30 19.7
JNUG  * long 10.08 10.51 0.44 10.84
DUST  * flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 19.43
JDST  * flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 39.53
TOTAL 6.38
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * long 119.92 122.28 4.46 121.79
TMF long 18.57 19.68 2.18 19.47
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 34.93
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 18.05
VCLT long 86.78 86.50 0.00 88.09
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 52.90 53.63 0.00 55.54
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 55.54 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 56.27 59.97 5.36 59.48
JPM  * flat 105.34 103.13 -0.23 102.42
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE long 63.96 65.37 -2.74 65.07
OILU * flat 22.96 21.48 -2.71 21.46
GUSH flat 13.00 12.12 -0.83 10.95
SCO flat 23.94 22.40 12.00 20.14
TOTAL 5.72
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * flat 114.02 111.64 -4.73 110.66
WMT * flat 99.45 97.36 -4.10 98.52
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 175.87
TGT * flat 73.20 71.64 -4.19 72.18
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 41.62 41.65 0.00 42.77
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * flat 272.54 266.99 1.88 265.33
CURE long 50.16 53.47 -3.47 55.44
XLV long 88.56 90.23 -1.89 91.47
JNJ  * long 128.75 131.28 -2.71 134.31
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.40 24.91 0.00 25.15
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.58
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 86.38
YCS  * long 74.26 74.55 0.00 75.58
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 41.44 41.2 0.00 42.87
EURL  * long 22.73 22.43 0.00 24.04
EEM  * long 41.34 40.88 0.00 42.15
EZU  * flat 37.98 37.12 0.13 37.14
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 160.13 159.46 -2.80 170.8
IBM long 132.02 121.96 0.00 136.48
MSFT  * flat 108.00 105.74 -2.23 106.9
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.42 16.97 0.00 16.71
DBC long 15.18 15.54 0.00 15.63
CF long 43.92 44.92 -0.98 42.54
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 17.88
    TOTAL -0.98
YTD -12.42
%YTD -0.285%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

 

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

 

Light Positions:

 

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...  also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips...  to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

 

Trailing Stops:

 

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious...  the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction...  for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

 

Trading Strategy:

 

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry...  this will eliminate all whips...

 

HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

The entire listing as presented is a widely diversified portfolio of varied market interests, and we know that wide diversification is the key to reducing market risk in any portfolio...  therefore, the key to legitimate long term profit with this portfolio is to have positions widely and even distributed among as many of the different market groups as possible...  in other words, do not focus on only one market or favor one market over another, do not attempt to pick winners and losers with a heavy position in one market and a light position in another, one should invest the same dollar amount into each position...

 

Commit between 2% and 2.5% of your entire account to any one position and no more or less than that, this way your dollar risk will be evenly distributed among all markets...

 

Participate in as many markets as possible, treat them all the same, this will further reduce your risk and increase your likelihood for profit...

 

Upon entry of any new position, the initial exit stop is a 2% risk for that position, plus or minus a few ticks, 3X markets should use a 4% initial risk exit stop...  if you get stopped out, then that's the end of that trade, do not attempt to chase that market, just wait for the next signal opportunity, it will come soon enough...  if you are not stopped out, then the trailing exit stop will rise as the market also rises...  this will allow you maximum gains for any active position for as long as that market rallies...

 

About 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 new positions are stopped out at the initial exit stop, the other positions quickly recoup that 2% loss and generates further gains...

 

The optimized model allows the position to remain ongoing for as long as possible until weakness begin to show itself...

 

Several of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments are listed in the optimized portfolio upon request, but be very cautious if you trade any of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments, the price decays rapidly and is not a true investment market, it's only a near term hedge instrument...

 

 

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

 

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the mini contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  we have discontinued using the large contract since the volume for the large contract has diminished significantly and therefore may give false signals...

 

The Confirmation Price

 

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

 

 

The VP Price

 

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

 

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

 

The Floor/Ceiling Price

 

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

 

How To Read The VP Price

 

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

 

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

 

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...

 

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

 

 

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

 

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

 

 

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH

 

The momentum line very closely correlates with the market price...

 

THE CYCLE (CF) FINDER FOR THE SP:

 

The Cycle Finder captures the day to day zigzag movement of the market within each broader up and down cycle which is shown with the LT momentum graph...  the ideal time to buy is when the LT momentum line has bottomed and/or is still moving higher and the Cycle Finder has also bottomed...  a lower risk selling or shorting opportunity occurs when the Cycle Finder and the momentum line are both moving downward...  I find this particular indicator to be highly valuable in taking low risk market positions...

 

 

THE VERTICAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM SPREAD (EQ) IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST...

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

 

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2019.

 

This message and any attachment(s) to it are intended for the personal use of the person to whom it is addressed, only.  The message and its attachment(s) may contain privileged, confidential, proprietary, and otherwise sensitive information.  If you have received this message in error and are not an intended addressee, you are advised that any further dissemination, copying, publication or distribution is prohibited.

 

 

For Thursday, February 14

"Educating the mind without educating the heart is no education at all."

* * *  Aristotle

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

 

The main model is now short the March SP at 2711.00 as of 2/11/19 on a VP sell signal...    

 

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

 

MAJOR - -   2766.32 and must close below that price

on

Friday, March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2750.00

 

minor - - 2743.01

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2617.87

 

minor - - 2587.55

 

MAJOR - -   2534.34 and must close above that price

on

Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -   2494.38 and must close above that price

on

Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now short the April gold  at 1310.00 as of 2/13/19 on a VP sell signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

 

minor - - 1333.52

 

minor - - 1309.97

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1308.70

 

minor - - 1281.45

 

MAJOR - -  1261.85 and must close above that price on Friday, March 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   1 trade                                    32.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1136.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-12.89 points booked on closed positions, that's down .296% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

REALIZE, JUST SHY OF 200 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  none...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  Health Care...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  none

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2620.25 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 251.27 241.59 0.00 255.8
UDOW   * long 85.65 80.35 0.00 92.61
SPY long 267.73 260.75 0.00 274.99
SPXL   * long 39.65 37.58 0.00 42.98
UPRO  * long 41.92 39.62 0.00 45.43
QQQ long 166.47 161.77 0.00 171.01
TQQQ   * long 45.50 43.59 0.00 49.26
TNA   * long 56.19 51.97 0.00 62.12
SOXL long 107.67 99.34 -11.79 123.81
IWM long 148.29 144.09 0.00 153.42
MDY long 334.44 321.03 0.00 344.81
IYT long 180.75 173.86 0.00 188.93
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
April Gold long 1305.40 1302.40 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 123.09 122.56 4.47 123.37
UGL long 38.13 38.34 2.23 38.35
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.59
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 70.8
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 37.07
PPLT  * flat 78.94 77.26 -2.84 74.51
GDX  * long 21.81 21.51 0.44 21.92
GDXJ  * long 31.46 31.68 1.30 31.89
NUGT  * long 19.01 18.54 0.83 19.17
JNUG  * long 10.08 10.51 0.44 10.44
DUST  * flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 19.97
JDST  * flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 41.16
TOTAL 5.91
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * long 119.92 122.28 4.46 121.1
TMF long 18.57 19.68 2.18 19.18
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 35.27
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 18.35
VCLT long 86.78 86.50 0.00 88.1
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 52.90 53.63 0.00 55.63
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 55.54 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 56.27 59.97 5.36 60.78
JPM  * flat 105.34 103.13 -0.23 103.09
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE flat 65.37 63.96 -2.74 64.84
OILU * flat 22.96 21.48 -2.71 20.81
GUSH flat 13.00 12.12 -0.83 10.55
SCO flat 23.94 22.40 12.00 20.55
TOTAL 5.72
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * flat 114.02 111.64 -4.73 110.2
WMT * flat 99.45 97.36 -4.10 97.94
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 174.15
TGT * flat 73.20 71.64 -4.19 72.57
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 41.62 41.65 0.00 42.68
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * flat 272.54 266.99 1.88 263.8
CURE long 50.16 53.47 -3.47 55.12
XLV long 88.56 90.23 -1.89 91.26
JNJ  * long 128.75 131.28 -2.71 134.45
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.40 24.91 0.00 25.25
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.52
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 85.95
YCS  * long 74.26 74.55 0.00 76.2
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 41.44 41.2 0.00 43.02
EURL  * long 22.73 22.43 0.00 23.86
EEM  * long 41.34 40.88 0.00 42.07
EZU  * flat 37.98 37.12 0.13 37.19
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 160.13 159.46 -2.80 170.18
IBM long 132.02 121.96 0.00 137.52
MSFT  * flat 108.00 105.74 -2.23 106.81
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.42 16.97 0.00 16.86
DBC long 15.18 15.54 0.00 15.58
CF flat 44.92 43.92 -0.98 42.64
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 17.93
    TOTAL -0.98
YTD -12.89
%YTD -0.296%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

Continue reading

For Wednesday, February 13

 

"Educating the mind
without educating the heart is no education at all.
"

 * * *  Aristotle

1.  VP PRICE MAPS

 

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND
GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!!
 

 
THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW    
The
VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...
knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more
savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP
map...
Secondary
Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for
an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice
that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points
and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the
standard VP points for official main model signals...
SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             
The main model is
now short the March SP at 2711.00 as of 2/11/19 on a VP sell
signal...  
  
 
The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP
Trades:

 

 

1)
Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes
below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)
Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes
above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

 

 

MAJOR
- -   2766.32 and must close below that price 

 

on

 

 Friday,
March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - -
2745.50
 

 

 

minor
- - 2743.01 

 

 
MAJOR -
-   2734.73 and must close below that price 

 

on

 

 Friday,
August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR
- -   2710.84 and must close below that price 

 

on

 

 Wednesday,
March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 

 

 

 

 

 minor
- - 2683.98    

 

 

 minor - -
2617.94 
 
minor - -
2617.87
 
 
 minor - -
2587.55
 
 
MAJOR -
-   2534.34 and must close above that price 

 

on

 

 Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main
model buy signal...

MAJOR -
-   2494.38 and must close above that price 

 

on

 

 Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main
model buy signal...  

 minor - -
2365.28
  
MAJOR
- -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to
confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 

 

 

The above price
map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical
prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also
included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market
currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the
market...  
PLEASE
NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map
at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only
from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by
now, are very simple and are explained below...
 
APRIL GOLD  VP
PRICES  
 
The main model is now
long the April gold  at 1309.90 as of 2/7/19 on a VP buy signal...  
The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP
Trades:
1)  Any time the
market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this
would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the
market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this
would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR - -
1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to
confirm a new main model sell signal... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

minor - - 1333.52  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - -
1314.50
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

minor - - 1281.45  

 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR - -
1261.85 and must close above that price on Friday, March 1st to confirm a
new main model buy signal...  

 

 

 

 

 

SVP - -  none

 

 

 

The
above is a price map in descending order of all currently active
vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were
generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were
generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price
is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the
market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the
market...

 

 

 

 

2.  OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND
MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!! 
 

 
 
RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO
(OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING
 
 
Total
optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17
 
If
you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a
serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money,
it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it
myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then
email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading
strategy...
 
THE
PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON
AUGUST 20, 2015
 
YEAR
NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED
 
2015
4 trades                                125.30
2016                    13 trades
322.60
2017
25 trades                               224.75
2018
26 trades                                76.00
2019                      2
trades                                56.50  
 
TOTAL
70 closed trades                    805.15   
 
THE
PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON
AUGUST 20, 2015

 
2015
8 trades                                 372.60
2016
6 trades                                 364.90
2017
9 trades                                 381.60
2018
9 trades                                  -15.00 
2019
1 trade                                    32.20 
 
TOTAL
32 closed trades                    1136.30
 
To follow the
optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're
having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should
consider following the optimized portfolio...
 
-12.89 points booked on closed positions, that's down .296% so
far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  
NO
THINKING NECESSARY!!!
 
REALIZE, JUST SHY OF 200 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN
POSITIONS!!!
 
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017:
624.17 points - 
annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018:
388.25 points - 
annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only
 
 
I hope
you're not allergic to making money!!!  
 
PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the
optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long
term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market
symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you
could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...
 
DIVERSIFY AND
REDUCE YOUR RISK... 
 
If you see an
error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market
very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something,
thanks...
 
 
ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN
POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY
NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 
ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT
STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP
HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS
WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TO
DAY:  Banking and
Financials (FAS)...
 
GROUPS
WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  Health Care...
 
GROUPS
WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  none

 

 

...

 

 

 
IF THE EXIT
STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED,
PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...
 
MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK
INDICES
BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2620.25 2655.50 70
trades
*805.15
*not included
DIA long 244.85 241.59 0.00 254.53
UDOW   * long 81.75 80.35 0.00 91.29
SPY long 262.38 260.75 0.00 274.1
SPXL   * long 37.46 37.58 0.00 42.61
UPRO  * long 39.61 39.62 0.00 45.03
QQQ long 160.89 161.77 0.00 170.89
TQQQ   * long 41.33 43.59 0.00 49.16
TNA   * long 53.33 51.97 0.00 61.57
SOXL long 97.35 99.34 -11.79 122.67
IWM long 145.58 144.09 0.00 152.99
MDY long 328.88 321.03 0.00 343.02
IYT long 177.66 173.86 0.00 187.95
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS
METALS
BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP EXIT STOP
April
Gold
long 1305.40 1302.40 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 121.92 122.56 4.47 123.87
UGL long 37.49 38.34 2.23 38.66
SLV
*
long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.74
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 70.31
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 36.29
PPLT
*
flat 78.94 77.26 -2.84 75.1
GDX  * long 21.07 21.51 0.44 22.05
GDXJ  * long 30.94 31.68 1.30 31.97
NUGT
*
long 17.32 18.54 0.83 19.53
JNUG
*
long 9.77 10.51 0.44 10.51
DUST
*
flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 19.59
JDST
*
flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 40.86
TOTAL 5.91
INTEREST
RATES
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT
*
long 119.73 122.28 4.46 121.56
TMF long 18.39 19.68 2.18 19.38
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 35.03
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 18.14
VCLT long 86.78 86.50 0.00 88.28
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 52.90 53.63 0.00 55.79
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE
AND DEFENSE
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA
*
long 54.40 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE
AND BANKING
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 56.27 59.97 5.36 60.1
JPM  * flat 105.34 103.13 -0.23 102.6
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE flat 65.37 63.96 -2.74 64.04
OILU * flat 22.96 21.48 -2.71 19.88
GUSH flat 13.00 12.12 -0.83 9.89
SCO flat 23.94 22.40 12.00 21.28
TOTAL 5.72
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * flat 114.02 111.64 -4.73 109.2
WMT * flat 99.45 97.36 -4.10 96.97
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 173.97
TGT * flat 73.20 71.64 -4.19 70.41
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 41.62 41.65 0.00 42.71
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH
*
flat 272.54 266.99 1.88 263.5
CURE long 50.16 53.47 -3.47 54.67
XLV long 88.56 90.23 -1.89 91.06
JNJ  * long 128.75 131.28 -2.71 134.16
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.09 24.91 0.00 24.97
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.52
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 86.37
YCS  * long 72.58 74.55 0.00 75.44
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN
MARKETS
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 41.44 41.2 0.00 42.62
EURL  * long 22.73 22.43 0.00 23.83
EEM  * long 41.34 40.88 0.00 42.37
EZU  * flat 37.98 37.12 0.13 37.22
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 156.17 159.46 -2.80 170.89
IBM long 132.02 121.96 0.00 136.05
MSFT  * flat 108.00 105.74 -2.23 106.89
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE
AND COMMODITIES
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.42 16.97 0.00 16.88
DBC long 15.18 15.54 0.00 15.49
CF flat 44.92 43.92 -0.98 42.91
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 17.93
TOTAL -0.98
YTD -12.89
%YTD -0.296%
IF
YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…
 

 

 

 

 

Total optimized portfolio
points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 
13.701%
annual gains
 on closed positions
only

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total optimized portfolio
points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 
9.359%
annual gains
 on closed positions
only

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.  MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE
ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL
 
See the attachment for all comments...  the
momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...
 
TRADING RULE
 
When both the momentum indicator and cycle
finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that
market is reduced...
 

 

 

4.  TUTORIAL

 

 

 
The Main Model Formula
The
main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and
to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach
complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about
it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP
points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming
the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most
vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.
Light Positions:
It's
always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild
price action of this market...  also, if you're not nimble with these
markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day
to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all
possible mid day whips...  to be safer overnight, consider using an exit
stop for capital preservation...
Trailing
Stops:
Also,
trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that
subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to
enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious...  the VP
points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or
another direction...  for myself, I like to take profits at any time I
get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all
the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...
Trading
Strategy:
Also,
if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that
you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter
the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a
comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry...  this
will eliminate all whips...
HOW TO
USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO
The
entire listing as presented is a widely diversified portfolio of varied
market interests, and we know that wide diversification is the key to
reducing market risk in any portfolio...  therefore, the key to
legitimate long term profit with this portfolio is to have positions
widely and even distributed among as many of the different market groups
as possible...  in other words, do not focus on only one market or
favor one market over another, do not attempt to pick winners and losers
with a heavy position in one market and a light position in another,
one should invest the same dollar amount into each position...
Commit
between 2% and 2.5% of your entire account to any one position and no
more or less than that, this way your dollar risk will be evenly
distributed among all markets...
Participate
in as many markets as possible, treat them all the same, this will
further reduce your risk and increase your likelihood for profit...
Upon
entry of any new position, the initial exit stop is a 2% risk for that
position, plus or minus a few ticks, 3X markets should use a 4%
initial risk exit stop...
  if you get stopped out, then that's the
end of that trade, do not attempt to chase that market, just wait for
the next signal opportunity, it will come soon enough...  if you are not
stopped out, then the trailing exit stop will rise as the market also
rises...  this will allow you maximum gains for any active position for
as long as that market rallies...
About 1 in 6
or 1 in 7 new positions are stopped out at the initial exit stop, the
other positions quickly recoup that 2% loss and generates further
gains...
The optimized
model allows the position to remain ongoing for as long as possible
until weakness begin to show itself... 
Several
of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments are listed in the optimized
portfolio upon request, but be very cautious if you trade any of the 3X
leveraged ETF instruments, the price decays rapidly and is not a true
investment market, it's only a near term hedge instrument...
BRIEF
TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
The
SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the mini contract 4:15 pm
futures closing price...  we have discontinued using the large contract
since the volume for the large contract has diminished significantly and
therefore may give false signals...
The
Confirmation Price
The
confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market
must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...
the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not
designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or
bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than
likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has
been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation
price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction
and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation
price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position
at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new
short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these
price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since
these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new
erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why
the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the
new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are
selling out rapidly...
The VP Price
The
VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or
expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price
represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum
exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very
likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price,
and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and
repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP
prices...
The
main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and
to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach
complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about
it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP
points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming
the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most
vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market
trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the
other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend
reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and
attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the
VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the
market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP
and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model
determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...
The
Floor/Ceiling Price
The
floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is
always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely
mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP
prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and
ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close
beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell
confirmation signal...
How
To Read The VP Price
If
the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and
doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if
the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two,
maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to
continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the
move is not yet over...
A
Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
One
way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after
the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...
after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does
all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the
signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close
take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be
above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly
reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
Another
way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on
the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
Rejected
buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move
in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general
rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a
sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the
next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline
does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another
attempt at that buy/sell signal...
THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH
The
momentum line very closely correlates with the market price...
THE
CYCLE (CF) FINDER FOR THE SP:
 
The
Cycle Finder captures the day to day zigzag movement of the market
within each broader up and down cycle which is shown with the LT
momentum graph...  the ideal time to buy is when the LT momentum line
has bottomed and/or is still moving higher and the Cycle Finder has also
bottomed...  a lower risk selling or shorting opportunity occurs when
the Cycle Finder and the momentum line are both moving downward...  I
find this particular indicator to be highly valuable in taking low risk
market positions...

 

 
THE
VERTICAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM SPREAD (EQ) IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST...
The
email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for
improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you,
many thanks...
NOTICE:
I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE,
PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...
DISCLAIMER: The
information contained in this email is not intended to constitute
financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy,
sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational
and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial
advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using
any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you
fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul
Moskowitz, 2019.
 
This message and any
attachment(s) to it are intended for the personal use of the person to
whom it is addressed, only.  The message and its attachment(s) may
contain privileged, confidential, proprietary, and otherwise sensitive
information.  If you have received this message in error and are not an
intended addressee, you are advised that any further dissemination,
copying, publication or distribution is prohibited.  

 

For Tuesday, February 12

 

Subject: The Evening Briefing -
Short March SP from 2711.00 - Long April Gold from 1309.90
Date:
From:
To:

 

"Educating
the mind without educating the heart is no education at all.
"

 * * *  Aristotle

 

1.  VP PRICE MAPS

 

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND
GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!!
 

 
THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW    
The
VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...
knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more
savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP
map...
Secondary
Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for
an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice
that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points
and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the
standard VP points for official main model signals...
SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             
The main model is
now short the March SP at 2711.00 as of 2/11/19 on a VP sell
signal...  
  
 
The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP
Trades:

 

 

1)
Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes
below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)
Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes
above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

 

 

MAJOR
- -   2766.32 and must close below that price 

 

on

 

 Friday,
March 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 

 

 

 

 

NEW   

 

 

 

 

 
minor
- - 2743.01 
NEW   

 

 
MAJOR
- -   2734.73 and must close below that price 

 

on

 

 Friday,
August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR
- -   2710.84 and must close below that price 

 

on

 

 Wednesday,
March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - -
2707.00
 

 

 

 minor
- - 2683.98    

 

 

 minor - -
2617.94 
 
minor - -
2617.87
 
 
 minor - -
2587.55
 
 
MAJOR -
-   2534.34 and must close above that price 

 

on

 

 Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main
model buy signal...

MAJOR -
-   2494.38 and must close above that price 

 

on

 

 Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main
model buy signal...  

 minor -
- 2365.28
  
MAJOR - -
2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to
confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 

 

 

The
above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active
vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is
also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market
currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the
market...  
PLEASE
NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map
at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only
from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by
now, are very simple and are explained below...
 
APRIL GOLD  VP
PRICES  
 
The main model is now
long the April gold  at 1309.90 as of 2/7/19 on a VP buy signal...  
The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP
Trades:
1)
Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes
below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)
Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes
above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR - -
1343.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 22nd to
confirm a new main model sell signal...
NEW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

minor - - 1333.52  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - -
1311.90
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

minor - - 1281.45  

 

 

 

 

NEW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR - -
1261.85 and must close above that price on Friday, March 1st to confirm a
new main model buy signal...  

 

 

 

 

 

NEW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SVP - -  none

 

The
above is a price map in descending order of all currently active
vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were
generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were
generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price
is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the
market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the
market...

 

 

 

 

2.  OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND
MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!! 
 

 
 
RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO
(OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING
 
 
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017:
624.17
 
If
you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a
serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money,
it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it
myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then
email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading
strategy...
 
THE
PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON
AUGUST 20, 2015
 
YEAR
NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED
 
2015
4 trades                                125.30
2016                    13 trades
322.60
2017
25 trades                               224.75
2018
26 trades                                76.00
2019                      2
trades                                56.50  
 
TOTAL
70 closed trades                    805.15   
 
THE
PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON
AUGUST 20, 2015

 
2015
8 trades                                 372.60
2016
6 trades                                 364.90
2017
9 trades                                 381.60
2018
9 trades                                  -15.00 
2019
1 trade                                    32.20 
 
TOTAL
32 closed trades                    1136.30
 
To follow the
optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're
having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should
consider following the optimized portfolio...
 
-12.89 points booked on closed positions, that's down .296% so
far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  
NO
THINKING NECESSARY!!!
 
REALIZE, JUST SHY OF 200 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN
POSITIONS!!!
 
Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017:
624.17 points - 
annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018:
388.25 points - 
annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only
 
 
I hope
you're not allergic to making money!!!  
 
PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the
optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long
term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market
symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you
could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...
 
DIVERSIFY AND
REDUCE YOUR RISK... 
 
If you see an
error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market
very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something,
thanks...
 
 
ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN
POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY
NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 
ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT
STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP
HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS
WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TO
DAY:  none...
 
GROUPS
WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  Health Care...
 
GROUPS
WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  Consumer Discretionary (TGT)

 

 

...

 

 

 
IF THE EXIT
STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED,
PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...
 
MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK
INDICES
BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2620.25 2655.50 70
trades
*805.15
*not included
DIA long 244.85 241.59 0.00 250.94
UDOW   * long 81.75 80.35 0.00 87.56
SPY long 262.38 260.75 0.00 270.62
SPXL   * long 37.46 37.58 0.00 41.03
UPRO  * long 39.61 39.62 0.00 43.37
QQQ long 160.89 161.77 0.00 168.4
TQQQ   * long 41.33 43.59 0.00 47.12
TNA   * long 53.33 51.97 0.00 59.39
SOXL long 97.35 99.34 -11.79 115.46
IWM long 145.58 144.09 0.00 151.1
MDY long 328.88 321.03 0.00 339.5
IYT long 177.66 173.86 0.00 185.38
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS
METALS
BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP EXIT STOP
April
Gold
long 1305.40 1302.40 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 121.92 122.56 4.47 123.6
UGL long 37.49 38.34 2.23 38.54
SLV
*
long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.72
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 70.5
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 36.25
PPLT
*
flat 78.94 77.26 -2.84 74.6
GDX  * long 21.07 21.51 0.44 22.08
GDXJ  * long 30.94 31.68 1.30 31.84
NUGT
*
long 17.32 18.54 0.83 19.59
JNUG
*
long 9.77 10.51 0.44 10.42
DUST
*
flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 19.57
JDST
*
flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 41.27
TOTAL 5.91
INTEREST
RATES
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT
*
long 119.73 122.28 4.46 121.87
TMF long 18.39 19.68 2.18 19.54
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 34.84
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 17.99
VCLT long 86.78 86.50 0.00 88.25
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 52.90 53.63 0.00 55.65
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE
AND DEFENSE
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA
*
long 54.40 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE
AND BANKING
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * flat 59.97 56.27 5.36 58.39
JPM  * flat 105.34 103.13 -0.23 100.88
TOTAL 5.13
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE flat 65.37 63.96 -2.74 63.24
OILU * flat 22.96 21.48 -2.71 19.01
GUSH flat 13.00 12.12 -0.83 9.56
SCO flat 23.94 22.40 12.00 21.9
TOTAL 5.72
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * flat 114.02 111.64 -4.73 109.44
WMT * flat 99.45 97.36 -4.10 96.2
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 174.26
TGT * flat 73.20 71.64 -4.19 70.15
TOTAL -13.40
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 41.62 41.65 0.00 42.5
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH
*
flat 272.54 266.99 1.88 257.14
CURE long 50.16 53.47 -3.47 52.56
XLV long 88.56 90.23 -1.89 89.82
JNJ  * long 128.75 131.28 -2.71 132
TOTAL -6.19
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.09 24.91 0.00 25.21
ULE flat 15.20 14.18 -0.56 14.55
FXY  * flat 88.08 86.22 1.98 86.43
YCS  * long 72.58 74.55 0.00 75.3
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN
MARKETS
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 41.44 41.2 0.00 42.55
EURL  * long 22.73 22.43 0.00 23.08
EEM  * long 41.34 40.88 0.00 42.02
EZU  * flat 37.98 37.12 0.13 36.73
TOTAL 0.13
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 156.17 159.46 -2.80 169.43
IBM long 132.02 121.96 0.00 133.99
MSFT  * flat 108.00 105.74 -2.23 105.25
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE
AND COMMODITIES
BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.42 16.97 0.00 16.81
DBC long 15.18 15.54 0.00 15.4
CF flat 44.92 43.92 -0.98 41.96
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 17.84
TOTAL -0.98
YTD -12.89
%YTD -0.296%
IF
YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…
 

 

 

 

 

Total optimized portfolio
points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 
13.701%
annual gains
 on closed positions
only

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total optimized portfolio
points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 
9.359%
annual gains
 on closed positions
only

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.  MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE
ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL
 
See the attachment for all comments...  the
momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...
 
TRADING RULE
 
When both the momentum indicator and cycle
finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that
market is reduced...
 

 

 

4.  TUTORIAL

 

 

 
The Main Model Formula
The
main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and
to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach
complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about
it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP
points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming
the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most
vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.
Light Positions:
It's
always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild
price action of this market...  also, if you're not nimble with these
markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day
to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all
possible mid day whips...  to be safer overnight, consider using an exit
stop for capital preservation...
Trailing
Stops:
Also,
trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that
subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to
enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious...  the VP
points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or
another direction...  for myself, I like to take profits at any time I
get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all
the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...
Trading
Strategy:
Also,
if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that
you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter
the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a
comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry...  this
will eliminate all whips...
HOW TO
USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO
The
entire listing as presented is a widely diversified portfolio of varied
market interests, and we know that wide diversification is the key to
reducing market risk in any portfolio...  therefore, the key to
legitimate long term profit with this portfolio is to have positions
widely and even distributed among as many of the different market groups
as possible...  in other words, do not focus on only one market or
favor one market over another, do not attempt to pick winners and losers
with a heavy position in one market and a light position in another,
one should invest the same dollar amount into each position...
Commit
between 2% and 2.5% of your entire account to any one position and no
more or less than that, this way your dollar risk will be evenly
distributed among all markets...
Participate
in as many markets as possible, treat them all the same, this will
further reduce your risk and increase your likelihood for profit...
Upon
entry of any new position, the initial exit stop is a 2% risk for that
position, plus or minus a few ticks, 3X markets should use a 4%
initial risk exit stop...
  if you get stopped out, then that's the
end of that trade, do not attempt to chase that market, just wait for
the next signal opportunity, it will come soon enough...  if you are not
stopped out, then the trailing exit stop will rise as the market also
rises...  this will allow you maximum gains for any active position for
as long as that market rallies...
About 1 in 6
or 1 in 7 new positions are stopped out at the initial exit stop, the
other positions quickly recoup that 2% loss and generates further
gains...
The optimized
model allows the position to remain ongoing for as long as possible
until weakness begin to show itself... 
Several
of the 3X leveraged ETF instruments are listed in the optimized
portfolio upon request, but be very cautious if you trade any of the 3X
leveraged ETF instruments, the price decays rapidly and is not a true
investment market, it's only a near term hedge instrument...
BRIEF
TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
The
SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the mini contract 4:15 pm
futures closing price...  we have discontinued using the large contract
since the volume for the large contract has diminished significantly and
therefore may give false signals...
The
Confirmation Price
The
confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market
must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...
the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not
designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or
bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than
likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has
been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation
price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction
and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation
price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position
at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new
short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these
price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since
these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new
erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why
the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the
new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are
selling out rapidly...
The VP Price
The
VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or
expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price
represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum
exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very
likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price,
and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and
repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP
prices...
The
main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and
to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach
complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about
it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP
points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming
the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most
vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market
trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the
other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend
reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and
attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the
VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the
market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP
and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model
determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...
The
Floor/Ceiling Price
The
floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is
always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely
mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP
prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and
ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close
beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell
confirmation signal...
How
To Read The VP Price
If
the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and
doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if
the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two,
maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to
continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the
move is not yet over...
A
Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
One
way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after
the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...
after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does
all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the
signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close
take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be
above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly
reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
Another
way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on
the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
Rejected
buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move
in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general
rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a
sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the
next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline
does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another
attempt at that buy/sell signal...
THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH
The
momentum line very closely correlates with the market price...
THE
CYCLE (CF) FINDER FOR THE SP:
 
The
Cycle Finder captures the day to day zigzag movement of the market
within each broader up and down cycle which is shown with the LT
momentum graph...  the ideal time to buy is when the LT momentum line
has bottomed and/or is still moving higher and the Cycle Finder has also
bottomed...  a lower risk selling or shorting opportunity occurs when
the Cycle Finder and the momentum line are both moving downward...  I
find this particular indicator to be highly valuable in taking low risk
market positions...

 

 
THE
VERTICAL PRICE EQUILIBRIUM SPREAD (EQ) IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST...
The
email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for
improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you,
many thanks...
NOTICE:
I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE,
PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...
DISCLAIMER: The
information contained in this email is not intended to constitute
financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy,
sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational
and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial
advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using
any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you
fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul
Moskowitz, 2019.
 
This message and any
attachment(s) to it are intended for the personal use of the person to
whom it is addressed, only.  The message and its attachment(s) may
contain privileged, confidential, proprietary, and otherwise sensitive
information.  If you have received this message in error and are not an
intended addressee, you are advised that any further dissemination,
copying, publication or distribution is prohibited.  

 

 

For Friday, February 8

"The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that it has never tried to contact us."

* * *  Abraham Lincoln

The Evening Briefing - Short March SP from 2735.00 - Long April Gold from 1309.9

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

 

The main model is now short the March SP at 2735.00 as of 2/5/19 on a VP sell signal...    

 

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2705.50

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2617.87

 

minor - - 2587.55

 

MAJOR - -   2534.34 and must close above that price

on

Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -   2494.38 and must close above that price

on

Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now long the April gold  at 1309.90 as of 2/7/19 on a VP buy signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1324.66 and must close below that price on Monday, February 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1313.70

 

minor - - 1309.97

 

MAJOR - -   none  and must above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   1 trade                                    32.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1136.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-17.69 points booked on closed positions, that's down .406% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

REALIZE, JUST SHY OF 200 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  none...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  Health Care...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  Consumer Discretionary (DIS), Banking and Finance (JPM)

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2620.25 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 243.04 241.59 0.00 251.9
UDOW   * long 79.92 80.35 0.00 88.74
SPY long 261.69 260.75 0.00 270.14
SPXL   * long 36.73 37.58 0.00 40.82
UPRO  * long 38.83 39.62 0.00 43.14
QQQ long 160.22 161.77 0.00 168.23
TQQQ   * long 40.91 43.59 0.00 46.8
TNA   * long 51.00 51.97 0.00 57.83
SOXL long 93.27 99.34 -11.79 113.85
IWM long 143.36 144.09 0.00 149.78
MDY long 322.31 321.03 0.00 337.66
IYT long 173.13 173.86 0.00 183.22
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
February Gold long 1279.50 1302.40 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 120.76 122.56 4.47 123.76
UGL long 35.93 38.34 2.23 38.62
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.77
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 70.35
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 36.17
PPLT  * flat 78.94 77.26 -2.84 75.63
GDX  * long 20.98 21.51 0.44 22.03
GDXJ  * long 30.94 31.68 1.30 31.57
NUGT  * long 17.32 18.54 0.83 19.5
JNUG  * long 9.77 10.51 0.44 10.26
DUST  * flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 19.73
JDST  * flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 42.51
TOTAL 5.91
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * flat 122.75 120.19 4.46 121.83
TMF flat 19.99 18.69 2.18 19.46
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 34.88
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 18.07
VCLT long 85.96 86.50 0.00 88.08
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 52.73 53.63 0.00 55.42
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 51.99 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 53.31 50.79 0.00 58.14
JPM  * flat 105.34 103.13 -0.23 102.38
TOTAL -0.23
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE long 62.61 63.99 -1.36 63.23
OILU * flat 22.96 21.48 -2.71 19.3
GUSH flat 13.00 12.12 -0.83 9.57
SCO flat 25.58 23.95 12.00 21.68
TOTAL 7.10
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * flat 114.02 111.64 -4.73 110.84
WMT * long 99.45 97.36 -4.10 96.73
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 175.38
TGT * long 70.02 71.55 -3.00 71.87
TOTAL -12.21
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 41.47 41.65 0.00 42.63
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * long 263.64 262.29 0.00 269
CURE long 50.16 53.47 -3.47 52.41
XLV long 88.32 90.23 -1.89 89.71
JNJ  * long 128.75 131.28 -2.71 132.05
TOTAL -8.07
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.09 24.91 0.00 24.89
ULE flat 15.44 14.41 -0.56 14.72
FXY  * flat 89.23 87.35 1.98 86.88
YCS  * long 69.07 74.55 0.00 74.51
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 40.96 41.2 0.00 42.41
EURL  * long 22.20 22.43 0.00 23.62
EEM  * long 40.79 40.88 0.00 42.4
EZU  * long 36.06 36.66 0.00 36.99
TOTAL 0.00
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 156.17 159.46 -2.80 170.94
IBM long 121.44 121.96 0.00 133.19
MSFT  * flat 108.00 105.74 -2.23 105.27
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.45 17.00 0.00 16.94
DBC long 15.18 15.54 0.00 15.47
CF flat 46.61 45.58 -0.98 41.27
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 17.94
    TOTAL -0.98
YTD -17.69
%YTD -0.406%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

Continue reading

For Tuesday, February 5

"The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that it has never tried to contact us."

* * *  Abraham Lincoln

The Evening Briefing - Long March SP from 2710.75 - Short April Gold from 1324.70

  1. VP PRICE MAPS

THE VP SIGNAL MAPS FOR THE SP AND GOLD ARE FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NIMBLE NEAR TERM TRADER!!! 

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW   

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP MARCH mini VP PRICES             

The main model is now long the March SP at 2710.75 as of 2/4/19 on a VP buy signal...    

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

MAJOR - -   2734.73 and must close below that price

on

Friday, August 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2721.50

 

 

MAJOR - -   2710.84 and must close below that price

on

Wednesday, March 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...    

 

 

minor - - 2683.98

 

minor - - 2617.94

 

minor - - 2617.87

 

minor - - 2587.55

 

MAJOR - -   2534.34 and must close above that price

on

Thursday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -   2494.38 and must close above that price

on

Friday , April 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 2365.28

 

MAJOR - -   2277.19 and must close above that price on Friday , April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

 

 

 

APRIL GOLD  VP PRICES  

 

The main model is now short the April gold  at 1324.70 as of 1/30/19 on a VP sell signal...  

 

The Two Main Model Trade Rules For All VP Trades:

 

1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...

2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - -  1324.66 and must close below that price on Monday, February 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1323.20

 

minor - - 1309.97

 

MAJOR - -   none  and must above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

 

SVP - -  none

 

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

 

 

 

  1. OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO

 

 

STOP GUESSING AND BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND BE ON YOUR PATH TO FINANCIAL GROWTH!!!  

 

 

RULES ON HOW TO USE THE OPTIMIZED PORTFOLIO (OP) ARE FOUND IN THE TUTORIAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EVENING BRIEFING

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17

 

 

If you're having difficulty trading the near term VP model, then take a serious look at the optimized portfolio, you will definitely make money, it is easy to follow, tried and proven, and with no stress, I use it myself primarily...  if you have any questions on how to use it, then email me and we can arrange a time to review your personal trading strategy...

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED SP SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

YEAR    NUMBER OF CLOSED TRADES    POINTS GAINED

 

2015                     4 trades                                125.30

2016                    13 trades                               322.60

2017                    25 trades                               224.75

2018                    26 trades                                76.00

2019                      2 trades                                56.50  

 

TOTAL               70 closed trades                    805.15   

 

 

THE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE OPTIMIZED GOLD SIGNALS FIRST INTRODUCED ON AUGUST 20, 2015

 

2015                   8 trades                                 372.60

2016                   6 trades                                 364.90

2017                   9 trades                                 381.60

2018                   9 trades                                  -15.00 

2019                   1 trade                                    32.20 

 

TOTAL             32 closed trades                    1136.30

 

 

To follow the optimized portfolio, there is no thinking required!!!  If you're having difficulty following the fast moving VP signals, then you should consider following the optimized portfolio...

 

-12.03 points booked on closed positions, that's down .276% so far in 2019 on closed positions only!!!  NO THINKING NECESSARY!!!

 

REALIZE, MORE THAN 100 POINTS PROFIT IN CURRENTLY OPEN POSITIONS!!!

 

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - annual 13.701% gains on closed positions only

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.25 points - annual 9.359% gains on closed positions only

 

 

I hope you're not allergic to making money!!!  

 

PLEASE NOTE:  There is a smaller portfolio within the optimized portfolio indicating those markets which have the best long term overall performances, you will see an asterisk next to those market symbols...  for simplicity in following such a large portfolio, you could simply follow those specified market and do nearly as well...

 

 

DIVERSIFY AND REDUCE YOUR RISK... 

 

If you see an error in today's listing, just let me know, I went over each market very carefully after the close, but I could still miss something, thanks...

 

 

ALL PORTFOLIO OPEN POSITIONS HAVE THEIR EXIT STOPS LISTED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY, THEY MAY NOT CHANGE EVERY DAY...

 

ALL PORTFOLIO EXIT STOPS LISTED BELOW SHOULD BE ENTERED ONLY AFTER THE INITIAL BUY STOP HAS BEEN TRIGGERED AND THE POSITION IS ACTIVE...

 

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS BOUGHT TODAY:  Foreign Currencies (YCS)...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS APPROACHING THE BUY ZONE:  Health Care...

 

GROUPS WITH COMPONENTS STOPPED OUT TODAY:  none

...

 

IF THE EXIT STOP IS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW, THEN THAT EXIT STOP HAS BEEN RAISED, PLEASE CHECK YOUR MARKETS...

 

MARKET POSITION BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP POINTS FROM ENTRY YTD ON CLOSED POSITIONS
STOCK INDICES BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP CURRENT PRICE
March ES long 2594.50 2655.50 70 trades *805.15
*not included
DIA long 243.04 241.59 0.00 252.32
UDOW   * long 79.92 80.35 0.00 89.2
SPY long 261.69 260.75 0.00 271.96
SPXL   * long 36.73 37.58 0.00 41.69
UPRO  * long 38.83 39.62 0.00 44.07
QQQ long 160.22 161.77 0.00 169.53
TQQQ   * long 40.91 43.59 0.00 48.11
TNA   * long 51.00 51.97 0.00 59.3
SOXL long 93.27 99.34 -11.79 111.81
IWM long 143.36 144.09 0.00 150.96
MDY long 322.31 321.03 0.00 338.16
IYT long 173.13 173.86 0.00 183.05
VXX flat 44.25 41.50 0.38 #N/A
TOTAL -11.41
PRECIOUS METALS BUY STOP EXIT STOP ENTERED AT SHORT STOP  EXIT STOP
February Gold long 1279.50 1302.40 1258.00 1302.40
GLD  * long 120.76 122.56 4.47 123.96
UGL long 35.93 38.34 2.23 38.79
SLV  * long 14.51 14.91 0.64 14.89
GLL flat 73.77 69.24 0.00 69.85
ZSL flat 38.56 36.14 0.00 35.39
PPLT  * long 76.71 78.38 -1.17 77.67
GDX  * long 20.98 21.51 0.44 22.49
GDXJ  * long 30.94 31.68 1.30 32.47
NUGT  * long 17.32 18.54 0.83 20.75
JNUG  * long 9.77 10.51 0.44 11.1
DUST  * flat 25.95 24.29 -1.60 18.58
JDST  * flat 54.70 51.32 0.00 39.25
TOTAL 7.58
INTEREST RATES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
TLT  * flat 122.75 120.19 4.46 120.42
TMF flat 19.99 18.69 2.18 18.87
TBT  * flat 36.51 35.68 -0.83 35.69
TMV flat 19.35 18.08 0.00 18.64
VCLT long 85.96 86.50 0.00 87.85
TOTAL 5.81
UTILITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLU long 52.73 53.63 0.00 54.66
TOTAL 0.00
AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
PPA  * long 51.99 52.90 0.00
TOTAL 0.00
FINANCE AND BANKING BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FAS  * long 53.31 50.79 0.00 59.62
JPM  * long 101.84 102.07 0.00 104.25
TOTAL 0.00
ENERGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
XLE long 62.61 63.99 -1.36 65.04
OILU * long 19.97 21.36 -1.32 21.8
GUSH flat 13.00 12.12 -0.83 11.87
SCO flat 25.58 23.95 12.00 20.12
TOTAL 8.49
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DIS * flat 113.28 110.91 -2.36 111.8
WMT * long 99.45 97.36 -4.10 94.77
MCD * flat 189.52 185.63 -0.38 177.55
TGT * long 70.02 71.55 -3.00 72.44
TOTAL -9.84
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
IGF long 41.47 41.65 0.00 42.88
TOTAL 0.00
HEALTHCARE BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
UNH  * long 263.64 262.29 0.00 268.21
CURE long 50.16 53.47 -3.47 53.62
XLV long 88.32 90.23 -1.89 90.48
JNJ  * long 128.75 131.28 -2.71 132.88
TOTAL -8.07
CURRENCIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
EUO long 24.09 24.91 0.00 24.49
ULE flat 15.44 14.41 -0.56 15.02
FXY  * flat 89.23 87.35 1.98 86.84
YCS  * long 69.07 74.55 0.00 74.57
TOTAL 1.42
FOREIGN MARKETS BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
FXI  * long 40.96 41.2 0.00 42.79
EURL  * long 22.20 22.43 0.00 24.29
EEM  * long 40.79 40.88 0.00 42.83
EZU  * long 36.06 36.66 0.00 37.45
TOTAL 0.00
TECHNOLOGY BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
AAPL * long 156.17 159.46 -2.80 171.25
IBM long 121.44 121.96 0.00 135.19
MSFT  * flat 108.00 105.74 -2.23 105.74
TOTAL -5.03
AGRICULTURE AND COMMODITIES BUY STOP EXIT STOP BOUGHT AT
DBA flat 17.45 17.00 0.00 17.11
DBC long 15.18 15.54 0.00 15.67
CF flat 46.61 45.58 -0.98 42.66
GCC flat 18.35 17.88 0.00 18.03
    TOTAL -0.98
YTD -12.03
%YTD -0.276%
IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN TODAY'S LISTING, JUST LET ME KNOW, THANKS…

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2017: 624.17 points - 13.701% annual gains on closed positions only

 

Total optimized portfolio points gained for 2018: 388.35 points - 9.359% annual gains on closed positions only

 

 

  1. MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS 

 

ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS AND CYCLE FINDERS ARE ATTACHED TO THIS EMAIL

 

See the attachment for all comments...  the momentum indicators and cycle finders are only for active subscribers...

 

TRADING RULE

 

When both the momentum indicator and cycle finder are moving in the same direction, then the trade risk for that market is reduced...

 

 

  1. TUTORIAL

 

 

The Main Model Formula

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